It's rivalry time as the Florida State men's basketball team prepares to take on the Miami Hurricanes. This game comes just a couple of weeks after the Hurricanes' former head coach, Jim Larrañaga, announced his retirement from the team.
The Hurricanes are off to a historically poor season start, entering this game with a 4-10 record. This is the Canes' worst start in two decades, going back to before Miami was even a part of the ACC. The Noles, however, enter this matchup with some momentum after they picked up their first conference victory of the season against Syracuse last weekend.
Miami's down year cannot be credited to a lack of efficiency on the offensive side of the ball. The Hurricanes have the nation's 50th-ranked offensive efficiency and have scored 75+ points in every game, except in their loss to Clemson. They have the ACC's sixth-best scoring offense, averaging about 78 points a game, while converting 48.5% of their field goals (best in the ACC).
Miami's main offensive weapon is their use if the stagger screen, something that their former head coach used to get the Hurricanes to six NCAA tournaments. The stagger screen is a simple, but very effective play that has helped the Hurricanes score on many of their possessions this season.
The Hurricanes will usually run two players to the short corners on the three-point line, while two other players get into position. The player in either corner receiving the screens will look to catch a pass from the point guard and now has options in an open lane. The player can either pull up for a mid-range jump shot, Miami is 14th in the nation at converting these middies, or they can drive into the line for a layup.
They can also run this stagger set for the guard who is bringing the ball up the court.
Many of the issues for Miami have been seen on the defensive side of the ball. Kenpom rates the Hurricanes' defensive efficiency at 111.6, which sits them at 286th nationally. The Canes have the second-worst opponent field goal percentage in the entire ACC (47.1%), as well as the second-worst opponent three-point percentage in the ACC (37%).
This serves favorably for FSU, as they are heating up from deep, especially in the last three games shooting an average of 38% from deep.
This matchup is one that, on paper, seems to go in the direction of an FSU win. The Seminoles have demonstrated that they can score in the paint in every game they have played so far, scoring 30+ points in the painted area in most of their games, even in their four losses. Miami allows opponents to score 58.32% of their near-proximity shots. Look for Ewin to continue his success from the post, scoring double digits down low in 11 straight contests.
They say defense wins championships, but on a smaller scale defense will probably be the deciding factor of this game. FSU ranks fifth in the ACC in scoring offense, just one spot above the Hurricanes. This game has the potential to be a barn burner with both teams scoring a boatload of points.
However, the Noles have something that Miami hasn't had so far this season: shot blockers and steal artists. FSU ranks first in the ACC in both blocked shots (5.21 per game) and steals (9.14 per game) in the ACC. The x-factors of this FSU basketball team have been Taylor Bol Bowen and Chandler Jackson, two of the four returning players to this year's squad. Bol Bowen is averaging 1.5 blocks a game (third in the ACC) and Jackson has picked pockets at a 1.5 steal-a-game pace (10th in the conference).
Look for the Noles to wreak havoc, as they've done so for most of the season, and capitalize on Hurricane turnovers to move their win streak in the rivalry to four.
Players to Watch
FSU:
F #1 Jamir Watkins (19.3 ppg and 4.6 rpg; 16 pts and 11 rebs against Miami, March 9, 2023)
C #12 Malique Ewin (13.3 ppg and 7.3 rpg; First career game against Miami)
Miami:
G #0 Matthew Cleveland (12.7 ppg and 4.6 rpg; 16 pts and 7 rebs against Florida State, March 9, 2024)
- Cleveland is also a former Nole
C #1 Lynn Kidd (11.3 ppg and 7.4 rpg; 8 pts and 3 rebs against Florida State, at Virginia Tech, March 13, 2024)
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